TPA Brexit Intelligence Brief: 12 March 2019
Brexit is in the air, and information on the proceedings comes quick and fast. Ireland-based TPA Research issues a weekly brief on all things EU, and they have up-to-date information on what Oklahoma exporters and their EU-based partners need to know.
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More highlights in their up-to-the-minute brief can be found below:
EU Intelligence: Brexit
12 March 2019
- 12 March ‘Meaningful vote’ scheduled
- 13 March Possible ‘no deal’ vote
- 14 March Possible Article 50 extension vote
- 29 March Currently scheduled Brexit day
- 2 May UK Local Elections
- 23 – 26 May European Parliament Elections
- First week July New European Parliament sworn in – affecting legal status of any Art. 50 extension
While yesterday’s update does not provide the time limit to the backstop that Brexiteers demanded, in our view the concessions granted by the UK are not insignificant. Ireland’s view of unilateral declarations to EU treaties is that they are meaningful – indeed this is the very mechanism by which the Irish government persuaded Irish citizens to approve the Lisbon Treaty by referendum at the second time of asking. Furthermore, a strengthened referral mechanism to an arbitration panel to rule on issues pertaining to the Irish border makes for uncomfortable reading in Dublin. The last time an arbitration panel ruled on the Irish border was in 1925 and resulted in a disastrous outcome for Dublin.
The position of the DUP, which will rely to a large extent on the legal advice offered by Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, could be decisive. Should the DUP oppose the deal, as Sammy Wilson’s initial reaction suggests they might, the deal is all but certain to fail. In this scenario, Theresa May has committed to offering a vote on no-deal and an Article 50 extension on 13 and 14 March respectively.
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